Talk:2024 YR4

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https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12351 (raw link for Talk page only). — Preceding unsigned comment added by 50.43.120.18 (talk) 05:32, 14 October 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Are there any references or calculations about a near miss of the moon? I guess (but don't know for sure) the the asteroid could be gravitationaly deflected if it passes the moon at a close distance, something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole ? 2003:E7:EF44:5F00:360E:9A10:1A61:E44C (talk) 08:53, 16 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think there are any notable "keyholes" for that lunar approach. Renerpho (talk) 09:40, 16 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Wiegert et al.'s "The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4" (on arxiv since June 12, submitted to AAS journals) will make an interesting addition once it's through peer review. Universe Today ran a story on it last week, although I think the truly interesting part of the paper (the strong dependence of the effects of a lunar impact on the exact location of that impact on the lunar surface) isn't covered well. Renerpho (talk) 09:37, 21 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

As for covering the preprint prior to publication, I thought about it, but I'm not sure. Opinions? Renerpho (talk) 09:41, 21 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

NASA mentioned the possibility of JWST observing 2024 yr4 in February 2026, noting that it may be tough but could either eliminate or raise moon impact odds to about 30%, should this be added? MrHalfBacon (talk) 18:00, 20 December 2025 (UTC)[reply]

@MrHalfBacon: Remind me please, where did they mention this? Renerpho (talk) 19:01, 20 December 2025 (UTC)[reply] It is under JWST proposal 9441: Enabling early decision for a possible lunar impact in 2032. MrHalfBacon (talk) 19:12, 20 December 2025 (UTC)[reply] The proposal does point out that it will be difficult, as according to the paper it will be about V mag 30. MrHalfBacon (talk) 19:18, 20 December 2025 (UTC)[reply] @MrHalfBacon: I see (that's on page 2 of the proposal PDF). It's also quoted in this article on iflscience.com from 12 November 2025 which would be a good additional source. And yes, I think it's worth mentioning. Renerpho (talk) 19:21, 20 December 2025 (UTC)[reply]

The article is currently citing me (Daniel Bamberger), in the #Possible impact on the Moon section, quoting me to have said that the impact "could be brighter than the full moon" making it clearly visible to the naked eye. While it is true that I said this, I also later stated publicly that I no longer agree with this, based on new information we learned about the asteroid. I commented about this before on this talk page, in my comment of 31 May 2025. The quote in its current form is misleading, and I hope that something can be done about that. Here is my post on Bluesky, dated 31 May 2025 (citing this should be fine in this instance, per WP:TWITTER):

Looking at what I said about the possible lunar impact of 2024 YR4 in 2032, I made some claims in early February about its potential brightness and visibility, which I no longer agree with in light of what we've learned about the asteroid.[1]
I said that "the impact "could be brighter than the full moon" making it clearly visible to the naked eye". This could be true if the object was at the upper end of the size range that was possible at the time, and if all energy from the impact were converted into visible light (which it won't).[2]

The unrealistic model (100% conversion of impact energy into visible light) notwithstanding, we learned in March 2025 that the asteroid was nowhere near the upper end of the size range.

I don't want to edit that paragraph myself (per User:Renerpho/Potential_conflicts_of_interest#2024_YR4). I'm also not prepared to make an Template:Edit COI request at this point, since I'm not sure if it'd be best to just remove the existing quote, or to clarify it. Renerpho (talk) 03:01, 6 February 2026 (UTC)[reply]

I have tagged the current version as dubious. Renerpho (talk) 22:04, 7 February 2026 (UTC)[reply]